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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.